Martingale and grid simulator
A grid or martingale account shows a rising balance for months, then loses everything in a week. Set the lot multiplier, the step and the deepest level, and run it on 500 random markets.
- Balance: closed baskets only
- Equity: with the open grid's floating loss
- Accounts wiped out, of 500
- 12%
- Median growth of the rest
- +26%
- This market: deepest level
- 8
- This market: worst floating loss
- the whole balance
How it is calculated
Each market is 10,000 random moves of 2 pips, up or down with equal odds. The grid buys 0.1 lots on a 10,000 account, buys again every step lower up to the deepest level, each time the previous lot times the multiplier, and closes the whole basket once price is one step above the average entry. There is no stop loss: an account is wiped out when its equity reaches zero.
What the simulator shows
A coin-toss market has no trend and no edge, yet most grids finish the run with a profit, because a basket usually comes back. The few that do not come back take the whole account. That is why a grid’s win rate says so little: it counts the baskets that closed, not the one that could not.
Raise the deepest level and the account survives more markets but loses more when it fails. Lower the multiplier and it survives longer but earns less. No setting removes the tail.
How Monetio finds a grid in a real file
The report groups positions opened in the same direction while earlier ones are still open, counts how deep each group went, and checks whether the lots grew and the spacing was even.
The model here is a toy with no spread, no margin call and no trend, which the grid post explains. Its point is the shape of the risk, not a forecast.